When asked about my feelings on this move, my response was that of disappointment. While Renault has shown some promise and some improvement over the last couple of seasons, essentially we have a driver (Ricciardo) who is able to compete for championships moving to a team that cannot compete for championships, and perhaps cannot win a race. To illustrate this, let's look at some of the statistical facts on Renault's recent seasons:
Renault's last win (as a constructor) was 2008.
Their last podium was 2011.
Their last fastest lap was 2010.
Their last pole position was 2009.
Now, yeah, the current version of Renault is the team that raced as Lotus from 2012 to 2015, and while that team had wins in 2012 and 2013 with Kimi Raikkonen, and fastest laps and podiums with both Raikkonen and Romain Grosjean, it is notable that since Renault took over that team, they have none.
This isn’t to say I expect Ricciardo and Renault to be a failure. In fact, when a great driver goes to a new team he often drags that team to new heights and better results. (Examples: It is not a coincidence that Toro Rosso's only win came when Sebastian Vettel drove for them, and similarly Ferrari suddenly challenged for the championship when Prost arrived there in 1990.) I hope Ricciardo has this effect at Renault and gives us a fourth team beyond the top three fighting for podiums, if not wins.
If I had had my way, however, I would have placed Daniel at Ferrari. Yes, we all love Kimi, and I love watching him drive, but here are few things to consider there:
Ferrari have not had both its drivers win races in the same season since 2008.
Ferrari have not had its drivers finish one-behind-the-other in the championship since 2008.
Ferrari have not won the constructors' championship since 2008.
Ferrari have not won a drivers' championship since 2007.
Ferrari have not finished 1-2 in the driver's championship since 2004.
Since his return to Ferrari in 2014, Raikkonen has zero wins and one pole position. His teammates in that time have twelve wins and ten pole positions.
Ferrari need another top driver (sorry Kimi) to push Vettel and to take more points away from Mercedes. Daniel could have been that guy. Here's another way to look at it: Since 1964 Ferrari have only had two drivers not named Lauda or Schumacher win the championship. Only two! They need a driver like Daniel to help push them forward.
One can assume they will put some young gun, like Charles Leclerc or Antonio Giovinazzi in the second seat. Both might be quick drivers, both might be able to win races, both might be future world champions. Might, might, might. Ferrari don't need to be a team of 'Mights', a place where drivers prove they can win or not, they can be, and should be, a team of 'Definites', where they definitely know their drivers are capable of winning, and Daniel has proven that.
One can also speculate that Sebastian Vettel may have had an influence on Ferrari. He wouldn't want a guy who can beat him in the team. But why would Ferrari listen to him? What would Vettel do? Leave the team? Where would he go? Mercedes? Then he'd have to fight Lewis Hamilton, in a car Lewis knows better. Ferrari are in the better position in any of these debates with Vettel.
There is also danger now that Ricciardo in a Renault will take away positions and points from whomever Ferrari selects as its second driver.
There is no doubt Daniel would have been the best choice for Ferrari, but that's not happening. The dominoes begin to fall.
